Politics
Iran is ‘the elephant in the room’ as NATO meets amid escalation fears – National TenX News
NATO allies will try to ensure this week’s summit isn’t derailed by the fallout from U.S. military strikes on Iran, experts say, but the conflict may still be “the elephant in the room.”
U.S. President Donald Trump late Monday announced that a ceasefire between Israel and Iran would be phased in over a 24-hour period. However, the prospect of lasting peace between Iran, the U.S. and the wider Middle East remained uncertain Tuesday, with Iran and Israel continuing to trade strikes and Trump openly voicing his frustration.
The two-day gathering at The Hague is set to focus on boosting allies’ defence spending and reaffirming support for Ukraine, but is starting a day after Iran launched retaliatory missile strikes on a U.S. air base in Qatar.
Those attacks are unlikely to trigger NATO’s Article 5 commitment to collective self-defence, however, experts say. That’s because any NATO response to the conflict could further risk fraying the alliance.
“NATO doesn’t really have a mandate to get involved in the Middle Eastern conflict, and they are struggling to just keep NATO hanging together,” said Andrea Charron, a political science professor and director of the Centre for Defence and Security Studies at the University of Manitoba.
“I don’t think the Trump administration wants to negotiate for consensus in the protection of the U.S.”
All NATO allies must agree on answering an Article 5 invocation with self-defence military actions to support a member under attack. Article 5 is the principle of collective defence: an attack against one member of the military alliance constitutes an attack against all and will spur a joint response.
To date, Article 5 has only been invoked once, after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on the U.S., which led to limited NATO operations supporting American forces in the Middle East. Those operations were ultimately overshadowed by the coalition mission against al-Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan.
The current situation in the Middle East is far different, however.
What is different this time?
The Trump administration has been adamant that it is not pursuing war with Iran, and that its strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend were in support of Israel’s mission — another reason why experts say NATO won’t want to get involved.
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“This is not a NATO out-of-area operation whatsoever,” said Andrew Rasiulis, a former Canadian defence department official and a fellow at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute.
“The United States has not been attacked. This is Israel’s problem.”
Qatar’s government said Monday it successfully intercepted most of the short- and medium-range ballistic missiles launched by Iran at Al Udeid Air Base, which houses both American and Qatari troops. U.S. and Qatari officials said there were no casualties.
Iran said the attack matched the number of U.S. bombs dropped on its nuclear facilities and that the targeted base was outside of populated areas, suggesting Iran wanted to de-escalate.
Although a full-scale attack on a U.S. military base or embassy in a non-NATO country could be considered a “highly provocative” attack on U.S. soil, Charron said, others doubted that would be enough to trigger an Article 5 invocation.
“The bases are basically like rented property,” said Christian Leuprecht, a senior fellow on defence and security at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute. In the case of the attack on the Qatari base, he said it would be up to Qatar to retaliate against a violation of its sovereignty.
He also compared the current Iranian response to that in 2020 after the U.S. killed Iranian Revolutionary Guard commander Qasem Soleimani, which also did not escalate the conflict.
However, he noted Turkiye — which has long had tensions with Iran — also has a military base in Qatar, and “it’s not entirely a left-field question” whether it could invoke Article 5 itself if that base is attacked.
A prepared text summit statement agreed by NATO governments and seen by Reuters says: “We reaffirm our ironclad commitment to collective defense as enshrined in Article 5 of the Washington Treaty — that an attack on one is an attack on all.”
How could Iran affect the summit?
Experts agreed that the larger question is whether the summit can be held together as the Middle East conflict evolves.
Speaking to reporters Monday, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte sidestepped questions about Iran, saying the conflict was outside NATO’s territory and was not among the main topics for the summit.
He did say, however, that the U.S. strikes were not a violation of international law — contrasting with statements made by the leaders of NATO members France and Norway — and that Iran must never develop nuclear weapons.
“Allies have repeatedly urged Iran to meet its obligations under the non-proliferation treaty,” he said.
“This summit is about the Euro-Atlantic area, making sure that we can defend ourselves against the Russians — the really fast-reconstituting Russians.”
The brief summit statement will include just one reference to Russia as a threat to Euro-Atlantic security and another to allies’ commitment to supporting Ukraine, Reuters reported.
NATO has called out Iran for supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine, including the supplying of drones to the Russian military.
Iran’s foreign minister met Monday with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who had offered to mediate talks between Iran and Israel for a ceasefire.
The main achievement of the NATO summit is expected to be a formal agreement among all allies to commit to a new defence spending target.
Under the new plan, countries would spend 3.5 per cent of GDP on “core defense” — such as weapons, troops — and a further 1.5 per cent on security-related investments such as adapting roads, ports and bridges for use by military vehicles, protecting pipelines and deterring cyberattacks.
That increase, to be phased in over 10 years, would mean hundreds of billions of dollars more spending on defence.
Prime Minister Mark Carney has said Canada will meet the alliance’s previous, decade-old target of two per cent of GDP by the end of this fiscal year, with over $9 billion in new investments.
That newly fast-tracked commitment was announced amid ongoing security and trade negotiations with the U.S.
Trump has called on NATO allies to boost defence spending to five per cent and criticized members who haven’t met the older target. He called Canada a “low payer” and “just about the lowest” in comments to reporters on Friday.
This week’s summit is being seen as a victory for Trump, and experts say he wants to be on hand in Brussels to commemorate the higher spending commitment.
Leuprecht said the U.S. strikes on Iran have sent just as strong a message to NATO as they did to Russia, China and the Middle East.
“Israel had to do the dirty work (in Iran) … so the Americans could fly in, drop the bomb and leave,” he said. “That’s the message to the Europeans: you’re going to have to step up (and) do the dirty work in terms of deterrence. Same with Canada.
“It’s also a message to Putin and Xi Jinping, though, that when American interests are at stake and America draws red lines, count on the Americans to engage.”
— with files from Reuters and The Associated Press
World leaders are raising alarm after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose sweeping tariffs on European allies in an effort to pressure Denmark into negotiations over Greenland.
The move is sparking protests across the Arctic and sharp rebukes from Europe and Canada.
On Saturday, thousands of people marched through snow and ice in Greenland’s capital, Nuuk, chanting “Greenland is not for sale,” waving national flags.
Police described the demonstration as the largest they have ever seen in the city.
About 825 kilometres away, dozens of people rallied in Iqaluit, Nunavut, in a show of solidarity with Greenlanders.
“Greenland is owned by the Greenlandic people,” protesters chanted in Inuktut as they marched for an hour in freezing, windy conditions.
The protests came as Trump announced he would impose a 10 per cent import tax starting next month on goods from eight European countries.
These nations include Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Finland, because of their opposition to U.S. control of Greenland.
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The tariff would rise to 25 per cent on June 1 if no deal was reached for what Trump called the “Complete and Total purchase of Greenland.”
The president suggested the tariffs were leveraged to force talks over Greenland, a semi-autonomous territory of NATO ally Denmark that Trump says is vital to U.S. national security.
French President Emmanuel Macron said France stands firmly behind Greenland’s sovereignty and rejected the use of trade threats.
“Tariff threats are unacceptable and have no place in this context,” Macron wrote on social media, adding that Europeans would respond “in a united and coordinated manner” if the measures are confirmed.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said Greenland’s future is for Greenlanders and Denmark to decide.
“Applying tariffs on allies for pursuing the collective security of NATO allies is completely wrong,” Starmer said, adding the issue would be raised directly with the U.S. administration.
Bob Rae, former Canadian ambassador to the United Nations, also chimed in on Trump’s announcement.
The tariff threat could mark a significant rupture between the U.S. and its NATO allies.
Greenland already hosts the U.S.-run Pituffik Space Base under a 1951 defence agreement with Denmark, supporting missile warning, missile defence and space surveillance for the U.S. and NATO.
“There is no sign of the Trump war of aggression against Greenland and Denmark letting up. It is not about ‘security’ any more than Venezuela was about ‘narco-terrorism.’ They are both about seizing control and plunder.”
He further added, “No country, including my own, Canada, is safe or secure.”
The tariff threat could mark a significant rupture between the U.S. and its NATO allies.
Trump is expected to face questions about the proposed tariffs and Greenland later this week.
He is scheduled to attend the World Economic Forum in Davos, alongside several European leaders he has threatened with tariffs.
— With files from The Canadian Press
© 2026 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.
Prime Minister Mark Carney arrived in Doha on Saturday as part of a push to attract foreign investment and deepen Canada’s economic partnerships beyond its traditional allies.
Carney’s visit comes on the heels of his visit to China and follows the recent presentation of a new federal investment budget aimed at positioning Canada as a stable, attractive destination for global capital.
In a news conference on Saturday, Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne said Canada is working to broaden its economic relationships as global trade patterns shift.
Qatar is viewed by Ottawa as a strategic partner, with officials pointing to the country’s significant investment capacity and growing influence on the global stage.
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“We need to reduce our dependence and increase our self-reliance to find a strategic path forward,” Champagne said.
“Engaging with the Middle East and China is necessary for Canada, just like our European partners have done,” Champagne added. “We buy more from the U.S.A. than anywhere else, but the trading climate right now is different.”
The conference highlighted Canada’s industrial capacity and trade advantages as key selling points for potential investors.
Champagne also said international engagement is critical as Canada works to raise its profile among global investors.
“We are one of the G7s with very big industries. We build cars, planes, ships, we have an abundance of energy, and we are the only one with free trade with all G7,” Champagne said. “With the way the world is changing, you better diversify, supply chain is changing and we need to adapt.”
Prime Minister Carney is expected to meet with senior Qatari officials, including Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, as well as representatives of the Qatar Investment Authority.
His office says the talks will focus on expanding trade access and forging partnerships in artificial intelligence, infrastructure, energy and defence.
The visit comes amid heightened geopolitical tensions in the region, though officials say the schedule remains unchanged.
© 2026 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.
The possibility of a forceful U.S. takeover of Greenland is raising many unprecedented questions — including how Canada, the European Union and NATO could respond or even retaliate against an ostensible ally.
A high-level meeting between Greenlandic, Danish and U.S. officials this week did not resolve the “fundamental disagreement” over the territory’s sovereignty but did set the stage for more talks. The White House made clear Thursday that U.S. President Donald Trump’s desire to control Greenland has not changed after the meeting.
“He wants the United States to acquire Greenland. He thinks it’s in our best national security to do that,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said.
Denmark and European allies are sending more troops to the territory in a show of force and to display a commitment to Arctic security.
Experts say there are other, non-military measures available in the event of a U.S. annexation or invasion of Greenland, or which could at least be threatened to try and get Trump to back down.
Whether those economic measures are actually used is another matter, those experts say.
“I think it remains highly unlikely that we’ll get to that point where we have to seriously discuss consequences for a U.S. move on Greenland,” said Otto Svendsen, an associate fellow with the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
“So it remains contingency planning for a highly unlikely event. That being said … Denmark would certainly do everything in its power to rally a very robust European response.”
Here’s what that could entail.
EU trade, tech disruptions?
Experts agree the biggest pressure points that can be used in the U.S. surround trade and technology.
The European Parliament’s trade committee is currently debating whether to postpone implementing the trade deal signed between Trump and the EU last summer to protest the threats against Greenland, Reuters reported Wednesday.
Many lawmakers have complained that the deal is lopsided, with the EU required to cut most import duties while the U.S. sticks to a broad 15 per cent tariff for European goods.
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An even bolder move would be triggering the EU’s anti-coercion instrument — known as the “trade bazooka” — that would allow the bloc to hit non-member nations with tariffs, trade restrictions, foreign investment bans, and other penalties if that country is found to be using coercive economic measures.
Although the regulation defines coercion as “measures affecting trade and investment,” Svendsen said it could feasibly be used in a diplomatic or territorial dispute as well.
“EU lawyers have proven themselves to be very creative in recent years,” he said.
However, David Perry, president of the Canadian Global Affairs Institute, said in an email that economic measures against the U.S. are unlikely “given the massive asymmetry in the defence and economic relationship between the U.S.” and other western nations.
“Any kind of sanction against the U.S. doesn’t make sense for the same reason they can impose tariffs on others: they have the power,” Perry added.
Target U.S. tech companies?
The likeliest — and potentially least harmful — scenario for retaliation in the event of an attack on Greenland, Svendsen said, would be fines or bans against U.S. tech companies like Google, Meta and X operating in Europe.
That’s because the Trump administration has taken particular focus on preventing what they call “attacks” on American companies by foreign governments seeking to regulate their online content or tax their revenues, which has led to calls on Canada, Britain and the EU to repeal laws like digital services taxes.
“I think that would be a really smart and targeted way to get to economic interests very close to the president, while minimizing the direct impact on the on the European economy,” Svendsen said, calling such a move “low-hanging fruit.”
He also compared a future U.S. tech platform ban to how Europe moved to wean itself off Russian gas after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
“If you told anyone back then that Europe would basically rid itself of its dependence on Russian gas basically within a two-year period … that would have been considered completely impossible,” he said.
“Weaning the European economy off of U.S. tech would certainly be painful in the short term, but they’ve proven that they can get off those dependencies quickly if there is political will behind it in the past.”
A U.S. hostile takeover of Greenland would mean the “end” of the NATO alliance, experts and European leaders have said.
Trump himself has acknowledged it could be a “choice” between preserving the alliance or acquiring Greenland.
There is no provision within the NATO founding treaty that addresses the possibility of a NATO member taking territory from another, and how the alliance should respond to such an act.
A NATO spokesperson told Global News it wouldn’t “speculate on hypothetical scenarios” when asked how it could potentially act.
“None of this would be actionable in a NATO sense,” Perry said. “It’s an alliance that’s organized to bind the U.S. to European security, and revolves around the U.S. So there’s no scenario of NATO doing that to the U.S.”
Denmark and other European nations could move to reduce or close U.S. military bases in their countries as a possible response, experts say.
Balkan Devlen, a a senior fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute and director of its Transatlantic Program, said in an interview that a U.S. annexation of Greenland would force Canada to focus entirely on boosting its defences in the Arctic.
That may include trying to decouple from NORAD, the joint northern defence network with the U.S., in favour of a purely domestic Arctic command, he said — although that process would take years and require Canada to increase defence spending even further.
“Never mind five per cent (of GDP) — we will probably need to go like seven, eight, nine per cent on defence spending to be able to do anything of that sort,” he said. “It’s not even clear that we’ll be able to have enough people to do that.”
Devlen added that any retaliatory action, whether military or financial, needs to be targeted and proportionate to what the U.S. does.
“The problem with nuclear options is that once you use it, it’s gone,” he said. “And if it doesn’t do the damage or make the change of behaviour on the other party, you’ve basically lost a lot of leverage and you might actually sustain a lot more loss yourself.”
“Unacceptable’: Allies react to Trump Greenland tariff threats – National TenX News
Canada talks trade with Qatar as Carney touches down in Doha – National TenX News
How could Canada, EU, NATO respond to a U.S. takeover of Greenland? – National TenX News
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